Sugar yield of the Brazilian sugarcane harvest should improve by 3% of 2021 level based on analyzed crop conditions

Gamaya Press Release – Lausanne, 26th of August 2022

Gamaya, whose predictive analytical tools cover approximately 15% of the sugarcane area in South-Central Brazil, despite continued challenges due to lower-than-expected rainfall in the first months of this crop, sees some improvement for 2022 vs. 2021 total sugar production. (+3%).

Gamaya`s analytical models indicated that as of 15.08, about 321 million tons of cane have been harvested (59%), with an average yield of 77.3 tons of biomass per hectare and 136.7 Kg of sugar per ton of cane.  For the remaining area (3.1 million hectares) we expect the TCH to be 13% higher than the same period in the previous harvest, as well as the quality of the raw material (Kg ATR/ton of cane) to be 3% lower than the same period.

Based on our weekly analyses, we also noticed early in the season influencing factors that delayed the start of harvesting and a little more biomass compared to last season. This resulted in the harvesting progress to be 9% behind vs the last year`s harvest on the same date. The areas to be harvested from 15.08 to the end of the season is 41% of the total area, so 3.1m ha to be harvested at the same time we estimate biomass to be 13% higher than the same period in the previous season, as a result, the harvest during the current season may last until mid-December.

Whereas the numbers look very concerning, it must be remembered that last year’s crop was significantly impacted by extreme drought and frost events in the beginning of the season which also impacted the conditions of the ratoon causing a delay of 40-45 days in the beginning of the development cycle. This situation significantly impacted biomass yield and then slightly reduced sugar yield. Good conditions in January and February allowed crops to close some gaps in the development, however little rain from the delayed start of the harvesting in April did not allow it to get to average level. At the moment Gamaya assesses that expected total sugar yield could be at the 95% of the last 5 years average levels.

Says Yury Vasilkov, CEO of Gamaya: “Our predictive analytics tools update the forecasts on the weekly basis, using agronomic data, weather information, satellite imagery and harvest progress. With the largest independent data base for sugar cane for Brazil and customer base spread across key growing regions we can have a good level of confidence in the crop outlook and add value to our customers in the sugar milling and trading business.”

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